EU’s 2040 climate target a key milestone, but flexibilities could jeopardise 2050 climate neutrality

The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change welcomes today’s political agreement to enshrine a 90% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2040 in the European Climate Law. The Advisory Board also stresses the need for a strong focus on domestic implementation to keep the EU on a credible pathway towards climate neutrality by 2050.

Following inter-institutional negotiations, the European Council and the European Parliament have reached a political agreement on a 90% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. This level of ambition broadly aligns with the European Commission’s proposal, which draws on the scientific advice delivered by the Advisory Board since 2023.

The agreement introduces several flexibilities, including the possible use of high-quality international carbon credits equivalent to up to 5% of 1990 EU net emissions. While intended to provide implementation leeway, such flexibility would effectively reduce the domestic emissions cuts to 85%. Ensuring that any international credits used are of demonstrably high environmental integrity will be essential to safeguard the credibility of the 2040 target.

Prof. Ottmar Edenhofer, Chair of the Advisory Board, commented: "The agreement to set a 90% emissions reduction target for 2040 is an important milestone to keep the EU on a feasible path towards climate neutrality by 2050. It builds on the scientific recommendations put forward by the Advisory Board and reflects the ambition needed to align with Europe’s strategic priorities of energy security, competitiveness and resilience. However, some of the flexibilities introduced by policy makers – such as the possible use of international carbon credits – risk weakening domestic emissions reductions by 2040 and therefore jeopardising the EU’s long-term climate-neutrality goal. If international carbon credits are to play any role, they must meet the highest standards of environmental integrity to avoid undermining the EU’s domestic transition.

Prof. Edenhofer added: “Sustained, credible domestic action is essential to drive investment, innovation, and structural transformation across Europe’s economy. The EU Emissions Trading System is an important tool in this respect, as carbon pricing enables consumers and businesses to identify the most cost-effective ways to meet climate targets.”

Evidence-based advice underpinned the 2040 target-setting process

The Advisory Board notes that the agreement reflects several elements of the scientific advice provided since 2023, demonstrating how independent scientific input can help inform complex policy decisions. Over the past three years, the Board has delivered a consistent, evidence-based framework for designing EU climate targets, recommended a 90–95% emissions reduction range for 2040, and reaffirmed the scientific robustness of this range in its June 2025 report.

While the final agreement introduces flexibilities beyond the Advisory Board’s recommendations, the overall process demonstrates how robust, independent and transparent scientific analysis can guide policymakers through complex decisions while maintaining focus on long-term climate objectives.

The Board will continue to work with EU institutions and Member States to monitor the implementation of the 2040 target and ensure that Europe remains on a credible trajectory towards achieving climate neutrality by 2050.